Diagnosing snow accumulation errors in a rain‐snow transitional environment with snow board observations          下载免费PDF全文

Nicholas E. Wayand  Martyn P. Clark  Jessica D. Lundquist 《水文研究》2017,31(2):349-363

Diagnosing the source of errors in snow models requires intensive observations, a flexible model framework to test competing hypotheses, and a methodology to systematically test the dominant snow processes. We present a novel process‐based approach to diagnose model errors through an example that focuses on snow accumulation processes (precipitation partitioning, new snow density, and snow compaction). Twelve years of meteorological and snow board measurements were used to identify the main source of model error on each snow accumulation day. Results show that modeled values of new snow density were outside observational uncertainties in 52% of days available for evaluation, while precipitation partitioning and compaction were in error 45% and 16% of the time, respectively. Precipitation partitioning errors mattered more for total winter accumulation during the anomalously warm winter of 2014–2015, when a higher fraction of precipitation fell within the temperature range where partition methods had the largest error. These results demonstrate how isolating individual model processes can identify the primary source(s) of model error, which helps prioritize future research.  相似文献   

Exploration of remotely sensed forest structure and ultrasonic range sensor metrics to improve empirical snow models          下载免费PDF全文

Andrés Varhola  Nicholas C. Coops  Younes Alila  Markus Weiler 《水文研究》2014,28(15):4433-4448

Current methods to estimate snow accumulation and ablation at the plot and watershed levels can be improved as new technologies offer alternative approaches to more accurately monitor snow dynamics and their drivers. Here we conduct a meta‐analysis of snow and vegetation data collected in British Columbia to explore the relationships between a wide range of forest structure variables – obtained from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), hemispherical photography (HP) and Landsat Thematic Mapper – and several indicators of snow accumulation and ablation estimated from manual snow surveys and ultrasonic range sensors. By merging and standardizing all the ground plot information available in the study area, we demonstrate how LiDAR‐derived forest cover above 0.5 m was the variable explaining the highest percentage of absolute peak snow water equivalent (SWE) (33%), while HP‐derived leaf area index and gap fraction (45° angle of view) were the best potential predictors of snow ablation rate (explaining 57% of variance). This study reveals how continuous SWE data from ultrasonic sensors are fundamental to obtain statistically significant relationships between snow indicators and structural metrics by increasing mean r² by 20% when compared to manual surveys. The relationships between vegetation and spectral indices from Landsat and snow indicators, not explored before, were almost as high as those shown by LiDAR or HP and thus point towards a new line of research with important practical implications. While the use of different data sources from two snow seasons prevented us from developing models with predictive capacity, a large sample size helped to identify outliers that weakened the relationships and suggest improvements for future research. A concise overview of the limitations of this and previous studies is provided along with propositions to consistently improve experimental designs to take advantage of remote sensing technologies, and better represent spatial and temporal variations of snow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Are peatlands in different states with respect to their thermodynamic behaviour? A simple test of peatland energy and entropy budgets     

Fred Worrall  Ross Morrison  Chris Evans  Joerg Kaduk  Susan Page  Alex Cumming  Mark Rayment  Nicholas Kettridge 《水文研究》2021,35(12):e14431

Whilst all ecosystems must obey the second law of thermodynamics, these physical bounds and controls on ecosystem evolution and development are largely ignored across the ecohydrological literature. To unravel the importance of these underlying restraints on ecosystem form and function, and their power to inform our scientific understanding, we have calculated the entropy budget of a range of peat ecosystems. We hypothesize that less disturbed peatlands are ‘near equilibrium’ with respect to the second law of thermodynamics and thus respond to change by minimizing entropy production. This ‘near equilibrium’ state is best achieved by limiting evaporative losses. Alternatively, peatlands ‘far-from-equilibrium’ respond to a change in energy inputs by maximizing entropy production which is best achieved by increasing evapotranspiration. To test these alternatives this study examined the energy balance time series from seven peatlands across a disturbance gradient. We estimate the entropy budgets for each and determine how a change in net radiation (ΔR_n) was transferred to a change in latent heat flux (ΔλE). The study showed that: (i) The transfer of net radiation to latent heat differed significantly between peatlands. One group transferred up to 64% of the change in net radiation to a change in latent heat flux, while the second transferred as little as 27%. (ii) Sites that transferred the most energy to latent heat flux were those that produced the greatest entropy. The study shows that an ecosystem could be ‘near equilibrium’ rather than ‘far from equilibrium’.  相似文献   

Experimental investigation into the effects of oxidation during petrogenesis of the Tissint meteorite          下载免费PDF全文

Nicholas Castle  Christopher D. K. Herd 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2018,53(7):1341-1363

We report on the results of an experimental study based on the petrology of the Tissint meteorite, an olivine-phyric shergottite that preserves evidence of an oxidation event during its petrogenesis. We find that oxidation occurring after olivine saturation modifies the Cr zoning profiles in experimental run products, and note that similar Cr-depleted olivine profiles occur in the natural sample. We consider processes that could operate to modify Cr zoning profiles in experimentally produced olivine, and find that diffusion operates too slowly; furthermore, peritectic resorption of olivine, which occurs during oxidation, does not adequately shorten the diffusion length to account for the depletion. Fine-grained (<10 μm) spinel grains are observed within olivine crystals exclusively in cooling rate experiments involving an oxidation step, suggesting that the mechanism causing modification of Cr zoning profiles in olivine is the oxidation-induced exsolution of Cr-spinel, consistent with observations of natural samples. A replicate experiment with V included in the composition shows that V is similarly affected. Known partitioning behavior suggests that Ni and Co should be similarly affected due to preferential partitioning into spinel. We consider implications of our observations for the interpretation of the petrogenetic histories of other olivine-phyric shergottites, and provide a new petrographic tool for recognizing oxidation events in olivine-phyric shergottites.  相似文献   

Systemic geopolitical modeling. Part 1: prediction of geopolitical events     

Nicholas J. Daras  John Th. Mazis 《GeoJournal》2015,80(5):653-678

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Shocked quartz in polymict impact breccia from the Upper Cretaceous Yallalie impact structure in Western Australia     

Morgan A. Cox  Aaron J. Cavosie  Ludovic Ferrire  Nicholas E. Timms  Phil A. Bland  Katarina Miljkovi&#x;  Timmons M. Erickson  Brian Hess 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(3):621-637

Yallalie is a ~12 km diameter circular structure located ~200 km north of Perth, Australia. Previous studies have proposed that the buried structure is a complex impact crater based on geophysical data. Allochthonous breccia exposed near the structure has previously been interpreted as proximal impact ejecta; however, no diagnostic indicators of shock metamorphism have been found. Here we report multiple (27) shocked quartz grains containing planar fractures (PFs) and planar deformation features (PDFs) in the breccia. The PFs occur in up to five sets per grain, while the PDFs occur in up to four sets per grain. Universal stage measurements of all 27 shocked quartz grains confirms that the planar microstructures occur in known crystallographic orientations in quartz corresponding to shock compression from 5 to 20 GPa. Proximity to the buried structure (~4 km) and occurrence of shocked quartz indicates that the breccia represents either primary or reworked ejecta. Ejecta distribution simulated using iSALE hydrocode predicts the same distribution of shock levels at the site as those found in the breccia, which supports a primary ejecta interpretation, although local reworking cannot be excluded. The Yallalie impact event is stratigraphically constrained to have occurred in the interval from 89.8 to 83.6 Ma based on the occurrence of Coniacian clasts in the breccia and undisturbed overlying Santonian to Campanian sedimentary rocks. Yallalie is thus the first confirmed Upper Cretaceous impact structure in Australia.  相似文献   

The influence of global sea surface temperature variability on the large-scale land surface temperature     

Nicholas L. Tyrrell  Dietmar Dommenget  Claudia Frauen  Scott Wales  Mike Rezny 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(7-8):2159-2176

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Fire and vegetation shifts in the Americas at the vanguard of Paleoindian migration     

Nicholas Pinter  Stuart Fiedel  Jon E. Keeley 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(3-4):269-272

Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt post-glacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms.  相似文献   

Geoarchaeological Investigations in Mesoamerica Move into the 21st Century: A Review     

Nicholas P. Dunning  Carmen McCane  Tyler Swinney  Matthew Purtill  Jani Sparks  Ashley Mann  Jon‐Paul McCool  Chantal Ivenso 《Geoarchaeology》2015,30(3):167-199

Over the past thirty years, geoarchaeology has moved from the fringe to mainstream status within Mesoamerican archaeological investigations. This review focuses on works published since the year 2000. Five themes are identified as central to recent studies: (1) the correlation of environmental change and cultural history; (2) anthropogenic environmental impacts; (3) ancient land cover, land use, and diet; (4) archaeological prospection; and (5) provenance studies. These themes are often interwoven in the application of complex systems approaches that allow scientists to more accurately model the intricacies of ancient human–environment interactions.  相似文献   

Element redistribution and mobility during upper crustal metamorphism of metasedimentary rocks: an example from the eastern Mount Lofty Ranges,South Australia     

Johannes Hammerli  Carl Spandler  Nicholas H. S. Oliver 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2016,171(4):36

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